/ THE BLUF
Bottom line, up front.
Fed day. The committee meets at 1400 EST and the smart money has them holding — fifth straight meeting above the 2% target, wartime oil shock, labor still resilient, no room to cut. After the closing bell, four of the seven biggest names in the market report at once: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft. Brent crude sits at $116. The pump national average hit $4.18, the highest since August 2022. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This is a Wednesday that prices itself in by Friday's open — pay attention to what Powell says, not just what he does.
/ THE WATCHLIST
Global & national.
Tehran
Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting its port blockade is sitting on the President's desk. The Situation Room meeting was yesterday afternoon.
Means: If he says no, oil keeps climbing into Q3 and the wheat trade keeps running.
Vienna
UAE leaves OPEC effective Friday — the most seismic structural shift in the cartel since the early 1970s.
Means: Production-cut cohesion is breaking. Watch crude inventories and Saudi posture next week.
Washington
King Charles addressed a joint session of Congress yesterday — the first such address in modern memory — calling the U.S.-U.K. alliance "more important than it has ever been."
Means: London is signaling commitment to the Iran posture. Coordinated next moves are queued.
Chicago
July wheat futures topped $6.59 a bushel, the highest since June 2024 — up nearly 30% year-to-date and 11% since the war started.
Means: Bread, pasta, baked goods will walk up another 8–12% by harvest. Stock the freezer this weekend.
/ HOMEFRONT
Domestic & wallet.
Capitol Hill
Powell holds his last FOMC presser today. Kevin Warsh succeeds him May 15; markets read Warsh as a steadier hand on inflation and a cleaner channel to the White House.
Means: The terminal-rate trajectory is about to get reset. Watch the dot plot in June.
Cupertino
Tim Cook transitions to executive chairman September 1; John Ternus, hardware engineering chief, takes the CEO chair. Apple reports Q2 earnings tomorrow after the close.
Means: If you hold AAPL, the leadership question is settled. Thursday's guidance tells you the rest.
Tallahassee
Governor DeSantis convened a special session Tuesday to fast-track new House district lines — four Republican-leaning seats added to the 2026 map.
Means: November is moving. Expect Texas and Ohio to follow within the quarter.
Pump
National average regular gas at $4.176 per gallon. WTI above $104, Brent above $116, both still climbing.
Means: A 12-gallon fill costs $50 today. Build the household budget around $4.30+ through summer.
/ RED FLAGS
Threat assessment.
IRS Impersonation Wave
The IRS Dirty Dozen list opens with phishing emails, smishing texts, and AI-spoofed phone calls. Refunds are landing this week and scammers know it.
Watch for: "Tax account under review" texts with QR codes, calls demanding gift-card payment, refund-claim links circulating on social. The IRS contacts you by mail first. Always. There is no exception.
Energy-Spike Fraud
Utility "shutoff threat" calls are spiking alongside fuel costs. Same playbook as the IRS scam — manufactured urgency, gift-card payment, fake account portals.
Watch for: Any caller demanding payment in the next 30 minutes. Hang up. Call your utility back from the number on your last paper bill.
/ THE WORD
The anchor.
"Be sober-minded; be watchful. Your adversary the devil prowls around like a roaring lion, seeking someone to devour."
— 1 PETER 5:8 · ESV
Sober-minded. Watchful. Not anxious — alert. There's a difference. Anxiety reads every headline as a threat to your peace. Vigilance reads every headline as information you can act on. Today, in a market built on rumor and a pump priced on a war, choose vigilance. The lion is real. So is the throne.